It’s hard to predict the outcome of an election even a few months out, particularly when the dates are yet to be announced. Still, all indications point to India’s Congress party and its ruling coalition to be resolutely trounced come this year’s Lok Sabha elections. Most recently, a Pew Research Centre poll found that 63% of Indians say they favour the main opposition party, the BJP, as compared with 19% for Congress.
Election dates are expected to be announced this week or next, and I’ve heard from someone who is closely tracking election issues that voting may run from the second week of April until early May, with results to be released around May 16. This is, of course, purely speculative – but if it comes true I plan to buy that person a very large cocktail.
I wrote this a couple of weeks ago and it aired on Monocle 24 radio last week.